MACRO IMPACTS ON RISING PREMIUM

PROPERTY

 Losses/Claims

• 6 years of losses in the insurance industry - even before Hurricane Ian

 Inflation (Government Spending)

• No end in sight 

           - as the value of everything rises insurance premiums 

             are expected to rise proportional

          DATA

• 2022 Average Replacement of Freestanding Store (Building/Contents) was $1,975,000, now in 2024 over $3,000,000 million (Up over 50%).
• as Sales have increased, Business Interruption payments have too
• cost for most equipment from HVAC, etc. nearly double vs. what it was 5 years ago

Global Catastrophes

• learn more here -  2022 was 76 percent above the 21st century average
• Hurricane Ian in 2022, even when adjusted for inflation, is forecasted to be 2+ times the cost of Hurricane Andrew
• Much more...Top 10 Here

 Severe Convective Storms (SCS)

• record level of US damage in 2023 due to severe convective storms

 Climate

• climate changes have created a new normal of higher cost events

 Interest Rates / Bond Declines

• capital/money leaving insurance and going to alternative places of higher yield
• premium finance rates follow interest rates which have nearly doubled in recent years 
• US Debt Interest Payments Nearly Double vs. 2020

 Strikes/Protest/Civil Unrest/Looting/Smash and Grab

• property coverage is being tightened to limit accumulation risks and avoid surprise losses 

 Geopolitical Tensions

• from heightened US-China tensions, Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts, and more – which generate uncertainty and risks for the insurance industry and put short-term pressure on marine/shipping costs, aviation, and insurance losses 

LIABILITY

 Judicial/Liability Hot Spots

• See States and Areas - click here

 Litigation/Attorney Fees

• Florida among other States - but with a favorable turn in March 2023 via new FL legislation

 Nuclear Verdicts 

• Learn more here (Florida, California, New York, Texas, and More)

• This is a very important term in the news as the availability of property insurance (especially after Jan. 1 2023) tightened dramatically due to multiple unprecedented events above happening in parallel.
• The “capacity” in early 2023 was indicated to be down by perhaps 50% in Coastal States and less in other States. Capacity is like availability. Meaning, if 50% of homes, gas, eggs, milk, etc. are not available, then people would either pay very high prices for what is available (supply/demand) OR they would go without these items. In insurance, those that can self-insure could consider choosing this option. For example, if you have a home with no loans, you could choose to not carry certain insurance.  However, your restaurants require insurance and at certain coverage limits determined by others.  As a result, you will fight for what insurance is in the market at a higher price. 
• The way insurance companies will navigate this first is to simply non-renew policies most at risk for claims or that have had claims.  After this, then they will determine higher pricing for remaining accounts knowing that some will then not renew due to cost.
• The current market conditions have not been seen since after 9/11 and in the 1980’s, but obviously we have much more to insure now than we did back then.
• The O/O system via its brokers and structure since 2013 has navigated this well vs. other brands, personal insurance market, etc.